Critical global developments with particular regard to terrorist threats, political strife, strikes, criminal activity, aviation incidents and health outbreaks
- Central African Republic
- South Africa
Security Threat Level Explanation
Security threat levels range from 1 (Very Low) to 5 (Very High) and are determined using a comprehensive system that utilizes both qualitative and quantitative analysis. The primary factors used to determine a location’s security threat level are Armed Conflict, Crime, Demonstrations/Strikes, Ethnic/Sectarian Tensions, Graft/Corruption, Kidnapping, Political Instability, Government Restriction and Terrorism.
Hot Spots Report
Following the agreement, the PTI modified its plans regarding a protest in Islamabad on 2 November. Instead of an open-ended “lockdown” of the capital, the PTI has called on its followers to gather at Islamabad’s Parade Ground for a “Day of Thanksgiving.” The Parade Ground is located in Shalar Parian National Park, near Faizabad.
Analyst Comment: The 1 November developments signal a de-escalation of political tensions, with both the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the PTI stepping back from a potential violent confrontation on 2 November. The crisis has not been fully resolved, however, and the PTI may renew its demands for Nawaz to step down if it is dissatisfied with the proceedings or the results of the investigation. The crisis would likely reignite immediately if any significant incidents of violence occur at the 2 November PTI rally; however, at present this appears to be a low-probability scenario.