Critical global developments with particular regard to terrorist threats, political strife, strikes, criminal activity, aviation incidents and health outbreaks

ASIA

  • Pakistan
  • Indonesia

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

  • Central African Republic
  • South Africa

Security Threat Level Explanation

Security threat levels range from 1 (Very Low) to 5 (Very High) and are determined using a comprehensive system that utilizes both qualitative and quantitative analysis. The primary factors used to determine a location’s security threat level are Armed Conflict, Crime, Demonstrations/Strikes, Ethnic/Sectarian Tensions, Graft/Corruption, Kidnapping, Political Instability, Government Restriction and Terrorism.

Hot Spots Report

 

 

ASIA

Indonesia (Security threat level - 4): On 1 November 2016, Indonesian rescue workers located the wreckage of a DHC4 Turbo Caribou cargo aircraft that had disappeared in Papua province’s Jayawijaya region on 31 October. All four crew members were killed in the crash. The aircraft, with registry number PK-SWW, was owned by the Puncak district government and was en route from the town of Timika to the district of Ilaga, both located in Papua province. No information is available on the cause of the mishap.
 
Pakistan (Security threat level - 5): On 1 November 2016, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan, the leader of the opposition Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) party, reached an agreement over investigating corruption allegations against the prime minister and his family. A commission composed of Supreme Court judges will investigate the allegations, which are based on revelations from the Panama Papers leak. The process is scheduled to begin on 3 November.

Following the agreement, the PTI modified its plans regarding a protest in Islamabad on 2 November. Instead of an open-ended “lockdown” of the capital, the PTI has called on its followers to gather at Islamabad’s Parade Ground for a “Day of Thanksgiving.” The Parade Ground is located in Shalar Parian National Park, near Faizabad.

Analyst Comment: The 1 November developments signal a de-escalation of political tensions, with both the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the PTI stepping back from a potential violent confrontation on 2 November. The crisis has not been fully resolved, however, and the PTI may renew its demands for Nawaz to step down if it is dissatisfied with the proceedings or the results of the investigation. The crisis would likely reignite immediately if any significant incidents of violence occur at the 2 November PTI rally; however, at present this appears to be a low-probability scenario.


SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Central African Republic (Security threat level - 5): On 31 October 2016, Operation Sangaris -- the French military intervention in the Central African Republic (CAR) -- ended. Approximately 350 French soldiers will remain in the CAR to provide support to the U.N. Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the CAR (MINUSCA). MINUSCA, which has at least 10,000 troops on the ground, will be the sole agency responsible for providing security in the CAR following the withdrawal of the French troops.
 
South Africa (Security threat level - 3): Rea Vaya bus drivers unexpectedly launched a strike in Johannesburg on 1 November 2016. The labor action has stranded thousands of commuters. Management is currently engaging the companies whose drivers embarked on the strike to determine their grievances and demands. It is unclear when the rapid transit service will resume; reports did not state if the stay-away will continue indefinitely while the issues are being negotiated.
 
 
 

 

 

SIGNIFICANT DATES

SIGNIFICANT DATES

1 November

Algeria: Revolution Day (Most offices/businesses closed.)
Antigua & Barbuda / Lesser Antilles: Independence Day
Australia: Melbourne Cup Day (Public holiday only in Victoria state; sporadically observed elsewhere in Australia. Some businesses and government offices close.)
Bhutan: Coronation of Druk Gyalpo
Bulgaria: National Awakening Day
Christianity: All Saints' Day
Guyana: Defense Force Day
Hinduism: Diwali (Hindu Festival of Light)
Mexico: Dia de los Muertos (Day of the Dead)
Somalia: Parliamentary elections
U.S. Virgin Islands: D. Hamilton Jackson Day (Liberty Day)

2 November

Christianity: All Souls' Day
Hinduism: Diwali (Hindu Festival of Light)
Mauritius: Arrival of Indentured Laborers Day
Mexico: Dia de los Muertos (Day of the Dead)
Pakistan: Opposition rally in Islamabad. Transportation disruptions and increased security presence expected.
Somalia: Parliamentary elections

3 November

Ecuador: Foundation of Cuenca (Public holiday)
Hinduism: Diwali (Hindu Festival of Light)
Liberia: Thanksgiving Day
Maldives: Victory Day
Panama: Independence Day (Businesses, schools close)
Somalia: Parliamentary elections

4 November

Israel: Anniversary of the assassination of former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin (1995)
Panama: Flag Day (Government offices close)
Russia: Unity Day
Somalia: Parliamentary elections

5 November

Panama: Colon Day: National holiday; businesses and schools closed.
Somalia: Parliamentary elections

6 November

Dominican Republic: Constitution Day
Morocco: Green March Day
Somalia: Parliamentary elections
Tajikistan: Constitution Day

7 November

Belarus: October Revolution Day
Kyrgyzstan: Day of the Great October Socialist Revolution
Somalia: Parliamentary elections

8 November

Somalia: Parliamentary elections

9 November

Azerbaijan: State Flag Day
Cambodia: Independence Day (Public holiday)
Pakistan: Iqbal Day
Somalia: Parliamentary elections

10 November

Bolivia: Potosi Local Festival
Egypt: Cairo Film Festival
Mozambique: Maputo Day
Nigeria: Anniversary of execution of Ken Saro-Wiwa
Panama: Uprising of Los Santos (First call for independence)
Somalia: Parliamentary elections

11 November

Angola: Independence Day
Belgium / France / Serbia: Armistice Day
Bhutan: Birthday of 4th Druk Gyalpo
Canada: Remembrance Day
Colombia: Independence of Cartagena Day
Egypt: Cairo Film Festival
Maldives: Republic Day
Palestinian Territories: Anniversary of Yasser Arafat's death (2004)
Poland: Independence Day
United States and her territories: Veteran's Day (Federal holiday)