Critical global developments with particular regard to terrorist threats, political strife, strikes, criminal activity, aviation incidents and health outbreaks


  • United States


  • Ethiopia
  • Madagascar
  • South Africa


  • Belgium
  • Central African Republic
  • Chile
  • India
  • Kosovo
  • Sudan
  • Turkey
  • Greece
  • North Korea
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Tajikistan

Security Threat Level Explanation

Security threat levels range from 1 (Very Low) to 5 (Very High) and are determined using a comprehensive system that utilizes both qualitative and quantitative analysis. The primary factors used to determine a location’s security threat level are Armed Conflict, Crime, Demonstrations/Strikes, Ethnic/Sectarian Tensions, Graft/Corruption, Kidnapping, Political Instability, Government Restriction and Terrorism.



United States (Security threat level - 2): Demonstrations occurred in locations throughout the United States on 9 November 2016 when the announcement of vote tallies made it apparent that candidate Donald Trump had won the presidential election. The majority of protest actions against Trump’s victory occurred on the West Coast, in the states of California, Oregon and Washington. In California, protesters took to the streets near the University of California, Santa Barbara, chanting slogans against Trump. Reports indicate that hundreds of students staged demonstrations near the Westwood campus of University of California, Los Angeles. Demonstrations were also reported near the universities in Irvine and Santa Cruz. In another incident, Trump supporters and opponents were reportedly shouting at one another near the president-elect’s star on the Walk of Fame in Hollywood, Los Angeles, causing nearby police officers to intervene and keep the two groups apart. Elsewhere in California, protesters in Oakland prompted the shutdown of Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) station at the 12th street. At approximately 0010 local time (0810 UTC), about 200 protesters briefly shut down Highway 24 on the border of Oakland and Berkley, California.

Meanwhile, in Portland, Oregon approximately 300 protesters blocked traffic and disrupted two light rail lines, and in Seattle, Washington, 100 protesters caused minor disruptions in the Capitol Hill neighborhood. Smaller-scale protests also occurred in the eastern United States, including in Pennsylvania and outside the White House in Washington, D.C.; Trump supporters also gathered outside the White House.

Analyst Comment: Overall, the protests that occurred were relatively small in scale, with the number of participants in the low-to-mid-hundreds, and the actions only caused minor disruptions rather than resulting in significant safety or security concerns. Those who are in the United States should anticipate additional protests over the election result, but the nature of the actions in terms of their effects and scale are likely to be similar to those that occurred earlier on 9 November. University campuses and cities in the western and northeastern part of the country will likely continue to be focal points for demonstrations.


Ethiopia (Security threat level - 4): On 8 November 2016, the Command Post -- the body tasked with implementing Ethiopia’s state of emergency -- lifted the limitation imposed on foreign diplomats, which restricted them from traveling more than 25 mi/40 km outside Addis Ababa. Minister of Defense Sirag Feggessa stated that the restriction was lifted due to the restoration of peace and security. The Command Post also lifted or revised several other state-of-emergency provisions; however, the changes are minor and are not likely to affect the overall situation. The curfew and communication restrictions remain in place.
Madagascar (Security threat level - 3): A police operation to remove street vendors raised tensions in Antananarivo on 9 November 2016. Reports indicate that one female vendor and her husband -- who is a member of the military -- were injured in confrontations with the officers during the operation. In response, affected merchants gathered to voice their discontent outside city hall, where the police officers who had carried out the clearing operation had taken refuge. Military personnel also gathered around the building, but the motivation behind their presence is unclear; some sources indicate that they were protesting the injury to their colleague, while others claim that they were deployed to protect the facility from mob justice. Some of the protesters threw rocks at the building, but a senior military official was able to restore calm through negotiations after approximately two hours.
South Africa (Security threat level - 3): Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in and around the Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni areas of Gauteng province on 9 November 2016. The weather conditions forced officials to divert flights from Johannesburg’s OR Tambo International Airport (FAOR/JNB), while images on social media showed flooding inside parking areas and in the basement of airport buildings. The flooding also cut off ground access to the facility. The R24 highway -- which is one of the main airport access roads -- was among the highways that the weather most significantly affected. According to the airport's social media account, the floodwaters have receded as of 10 November, but airport officials continued to advise travelers to check with their airline for the status of their flight.

Aside from the effects in and around the airport, many other areas in the vicinity also experienced flash flooding on 9 November. In the Linksfield area -- which is located approximately 12 mi/20 km west of the airport -- one person drowned in high water on the N3 highway. As many as six other people were killed throughout the affected area, and one child remains missing as of the morning of 10 November.

While the situation has improved on 10 November, many roads remain flooded. Furthermore, meteorologists forecast more rain for the affected areas in the coming days; this will likely exacerbate conditions in the locations that have already experienced flooding and raises concerns regarding the potential for the overall scope and scale of the disruptions to increase.


Belgium (Security threat level - 3): On 8 November 2016, the U.S. Embassy in Brussels issued a Security Message that reads in part as follows: "The U.S. Embassy Brussels informs U.S. citizens that an organized march will take place in Brussels on November 9. Police will be present at both events.

"On November 9, from 9:30 to 12:00 hours, an organized march will be organized by the European Steel Workers. The demonstrators will start to gather at Parc du Cinquantenaire as of 10:00 hours and follow the below course, departing at approximately 11:45 hours from Petite Rue de la Loi: Petite Rue de la Loi (start at 11:45 am), Rond Point Schuman, Rue Froissart, Rue Belliard, Chaussée d’Etterbeek, Rue Jacques de Lalaing, Rue de la Science, Rue Belliard, Avenue d’Auderghem, Avenue de la Joyeuse Entrée.

"The entire course will be made traffic free during the march. Parking will be prohibited on the Avenue de la Renaissance, Avenue des Nerviens and some parts of Avenue de Tervuren. From 11:00 hours the Reyers Tunnel (E40 direction center) will be closed.

"The Brussels Capital Ixelles police zone expects heavy traffic problems in the European quarter and at the small ring road and they request that people avoid traveling in Brussels by car where possible, and instead take public transportation. The police state that it is possible that the buses may also be affected by the demonstration."

Central African Republic (Security threat level - 5): On 8 November 2016, the U.S. Embassy in the Central African Republic (CAR) issued a Security Message that reads in part as follows: “The U.S. Embassy in the Central African Republic (CAR) informs U.S. citizens in CAR of reports of recent violence in a number of locations in CAR, as well as late October demonstrations in Bangui. Due to these events, the Embassy has cancelled some of the upcoming routine trips planned for U.S. officials in CAR. The U.S. Embassy urges all U.S. citizens to read the most recent Travel Warning for the Central African Republic (CAR), dated October 19, 2016.

“U.S. citizens who have decided to remain in CAR despite the Travel Warning should regularly review their personal security situation. Embassy Bangui cannot provide consular services to U.S. citizens in CAR at this time. U.S. citizens in need of assistance should contact the U.S. Embassy in Yaoundé, Cameroon.”

Chile (Security threat level - 2): On 9 November 2016, the U.K. Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) issued updated travel advice for Chile, which reads as follows: “There are ongoing public sector strikes which have affected airports, border crossings and the movement of goods. Peaceful demonstrations can sometimes turn confrontational and violent. You should monitor local media for the latest information and avoid all protests.”
Greece (Security threat level - 3): The U.S. Embassy in Athens has warned of the following demonstrations planned for 10 November 2016:
  • Time: 1500
  • Where: Ministry of Infrastructure, Transport and Networks, 02 Anastaseos and Tsigante Strs.
  • Who: Municipal employees
  • Time: 1700
  • Where: Ministry of Labor, 29 Stadiou St.
  • Who: Hotel employees

India (Security threat level - 3): On 9 November 2016, the U.K. Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) updated its travel advice for India to include the following: “Existing 500 and 1,000 Rupee banknotes are being withdrawn from immediate circulation from 10 to 24 November, 2016; banks will exchange these notes for lower denominations up to a limit of Rs 4000 per transaction; if you’re exchanging money at a bank, take photo ID and expect long queues; arrangements will be made at international airports for arriving and departing passengers who have old 500 or 1,000 Rupee notes of not more than 5,000 Rupees; foreign tourists will be able to exchange foreign currency or old notes of not more than 5000 Rupees into legal tender; new 500 and 2,000 rupee notes will be issued to replace the withdrawn notes; until then, if you’re exchanging money don’t accept any denomination higher than 100 rupees.”

Kosovo (Security threat level - 4): On 9 November 2016, the U.K. Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) issued updated travel advice for Kosovo that states: “Torrential rain has caused flooding in parts of Malisheva. There has also been extensive flooding in Gjakova. You should follow the advice of the local authorities and monitor local media for updates.”
North Korea (Security threat level - 3): On 10 November 2016, the U.S. Department of State issued a Travel Warning for North Korea, which reads in part as follows: “The State Department strongly urges U.S. citizens to avoid all travel to North Korea/the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) due to the serious risk of arrest and long-term detention under North Korea’s system of law enforcement, which imposes unduly harsh sentences, including for actions that in the United States would not be considered crimes and which threaten U.S. citizen detainees with being treated in accordance with 'wartime law of the DPRK.'”
Saudi Arabia (Security threat level - 3): On 9 November 2016, the U.S. Embassy in Saudi Arabia issued a Security Message, which reads in part as follows: "Due to the continuing risk of terrorist attacks directed or inspired by ISIL (Da’esh) and Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) across the Kingdom, the United States Mission in Saudi Arabia reiterates its recommendation that U.S. citizens exercise caution in places frequented by foreigners.

"The United States Mission in Saudi Arabia also reminds U.S. citizens that continuing violence in neighboring countries such as Yemen can potentially spill over into Saudi Arabia.

"U.S. government personnel and their families are restricted from travel within 50 miles of the Yemeni border, and to the cities of Jizan and Najran, without permission. U.S. government personnel are similarly restricted from traveling to the city of Qatif in the Eastern Province and its surrounding suburbs, including Awamiyah, and to the town of Hofuf and its surrounding suburbs in the Al Hasa Governorate due to violent episodes that have occurred there in the past."

Sudan (Security threat level - 5): On 8 November 2016, the U.S. Embassy in Khartoum issued a Security Message, which reads in part as follows: “The U.S. Embassy in Khartoum informs U.S. citizens that the Government of Sudan recently released an announcement regarding the lifting of state subsidies on certain consumer commodities. In addition, the government has reportedly taken measures to prevent or disrupt activities to protest the measures.
“Review your personal security plans, remain aware of your surroundings, including local events, and monitor local news stations for updates. Be vigilant and take appropriate steps to enhance your personal security.”
Tajikistan (Security threat level - 4): On 9 November 2016, the U.S. Embassy in Dushanbe issued a Security Message that reads in part as follows: “The U.S. Embassy in Dushanbe has received information that terrorist groups may attempt to target large public gatherings and/or border crossings with Afghanistan. This message is an update on the risk of terrorist attack within Tajikistan.

“With this in mind, the U.S. Embassy in Dushanbe is recommending U.S. citizens do the following:

  • "Avoid large crowds and public transportation to the extent possible.
  • "While traveling in Gorno-Badakhshan, avoid camping or biking after dark in the vicinity of the Afghan border, especially between populated areas. Do not shelter in the open after dark.
  • “The Embassy remains open during normal operating hours, although it will be closed on Friday, November 11 in honor of Veteran’s Day.”
Turkey (Security threat level - 4): On 9 November 2016, the U.S. Embassy in Ankara issued a Security Message that reads in part as follows: "U.S. Embassy Ankara informs U.S. citizens that it is aware that police have responded to a gathering of approximately 500 protestors in the vicinity of the German Embassy, located on Paris Avenue in Kavaklidere, Ankara. The U.S. Embassy is next door to the German Embassy in Ankara. Paris Avenue (Caddesi) is currently closed to traffic.

"The governorate of Ankara has banned all demonstrations, rallies and public gatherings in the Province of Ankara, inclusive of the city of Ankara, until November 30, 2016, citing security concerns. Thus, as in many countries, simply being at or near an illegal public gathering could lead to arrest or detention."


9 November

Azerbaijan: State Flag Day
Cambodia: Independence Day (Public holiday)
Pakistan: Iqbal Day
Somalia: Parliamentary elections

10 November

Bolivia: Potosi Local Festival
Egypt: Cairo Film Festival
Mozambique: Maputo Day
Nigeria: Anniversary of execution of Ken Saro-Wiwa
Panama: Uprising of Los Santos (First call for independence)
Somalia: Parliamentary elections

11 November

Angola: Independence Day
Belgium / France / Serbia: Armistice Day
Bhutan: Birthday of 4th Druk Gyalpo
Canada: Remembrance Day
Colombia: Independence of Cartagena Day
Egypt: Cairo Film Festival
Ethiopia: Anniversary of the start of the Oromo protests (2015); elevated threat of unrest.
Maldives: Republic Day
Palestinian Territories: Anniversary of Yasser Arafat's death (2004)
Poland: Independence Day
United States and her territories: Veteran's Day (Federal holiday)

12 November

Azerbaijan: Constitution Day
Egypt: Cairo Film Festival
Venezuela: Day of Indigenous Resistance

13 November

Egypt: Cairo Film Festival
Monaco: Monaco National Day

14 November

Egypt: Cairo Film Festival
Guinea-Bissau: Anniversary of the Movement of Readjustment
India: Guru Nanak's Birthday. Observed as a public holiday in several Indian states
Jordan: Remembrance Day

15 November

Belgium: German-speaking Community Holiday
Brazil: Proclamation of the Republic (public holiday)
Côte d’Ivoire: National Peace Day
Egypt: Cairo Film Festival
Ethiopia: African Development Forum
Palestinian Territories: Independence Day

16 November

Egypt: Cairo Film Festival
Ethiopia: African Development Forum
Tajikistan: President's Day

17 November

Azerbaijan: National Revival Day
Czech Republic: Struggle for Freedom and Democracy Day
Egypt: Cairo Film Festival
Ethiopia: African Development Forum
Greece: Anniversary of Student Uprising (1973)
Slovakia: Revolution Day

18 November

Bolivia: Beni Local Festival
Egypt: Cairo Film Festival
Haiti: Battle of Vertieres Day
Latvia: Proclamation Day
Morocco: Independence Day
Oman: Birthday of Sultan Qaboos & National Day

19 November

Belize: Garifuna Settlement Day
Egypt: Cairo Film Festival
Mali: Liberation Day
Puerto Rico: Discovery of Puerto Rico (Public holiday)
Senegal: Magal de Touba